At least for the next two to four years, the majority of AI impact will come from fixing and improving broken and bungled parts of the enterprise. Meanwhile, the firms that don't improve get mortally wounded, and many of them have their funerals.

I think tech benchmarks miss the point, or distract from it a bit.

The real economics and national competitiveness matter more.

I agree that comparing what is happening with AI now to the advent of the personal computer is too narrow, too slow, too brittle, and historically dissimilar.

If you still don't know what tokens are, don't worry. In a year or two, no one will talk about them anymore. (If you really want an explanation, there's one at the bottom of the article. But when you use electricity at work, you really don't spend time thinking about electrons (I hope).

The Paradox of Efficiency

Why Jeff Bezos’s AI “Labor Shortage” Thesis Misdiagnoses the Mechanics of the Cognitive Automation Era

We are entering a new phase in the breakneck development of AI, where an end-to-end cost structure for usage will be key. The anchor will no longer be scale, capex, or speculation-based metrics.

DeepSeek V4 introduces a highly efficient open-weight Mixture-of-Experts large language model with million-token context support and major long-context architecture upgrades.

Yes, 100% you have to redesign your organization for the already here, rapidly growing/changing AI future. But it is downstream from some essential things, and so much harder than you think. There are four astronomically hard parts.

If you could change one thing about the world, what would that be?
The massive inequality of access to the basics: food security, healthcare, education, agency, opportunity, and freedom.

A short article by Nick Rockel for the marvelous and very useful National Assoc of Corp Directors featuring two smart people, Tom Petro and Andrea Bonime-Blanc, JD/PhD, plus me ...

Hard to model exactly but statistically a Nobel Prize in Science is as rare as someone winning the World Series then the Indy 500.

The Subtext: Defending national competitiveness in this time of tech upheaval is a fool's errand. Boosting/improving national competitiveness wins.

The world is focused on building smarter and smarter AI. But the real question is how AI becomes useful in the real world.

The smarties at WSJ are highlighting just how much the big AI firms are spending to support growth versus their actually quite impressive revenue numbers.

We have been talking about a 4th industrial revolution since Davos 2017. That's an industrial revolution size set of changes inside the next 8 years, maybe sooner.

You won't be informed of it for a couple of years, maybe a bit more, but it is happening now. Because you have not post-Quantum proofed your systems/data at rest.

I think as we see GenZ's share of the economy grow, we will see forces that not just change what brands are and how they are valued, but actually how stakeholders fit in the economic engine/system.

Guns don't win battles. One fun example is the Battle of Puebla (Cinco de Mayo). The French forgot their artillery ammo. That changed the course of history, including America (see my annual post on that).

A quick update to my little article on China triggered by digging in Singapore surrounded by Chinese EVs... including the DeepSeek news and why that matters to your business.

Space Tech (ST) is not just about space. It’s an exciting, unique, breakthrough layer for about 30 domains, mostly on earth

Singapore has positioned itself as the world’s most proactive nation in preparing for AI disruption, demonstrating an anticipatory rather than reactive approach that sets it apart from other global powers.

Four things China as I wander around Singapore and keep seeing different, smart, Chinese-made EV's...

The harsh truth is this tech multiplies the output of a good consultant by 10x over the next three to five years while enabling most firms to have their own AI generated consultant team for 80% of what they have been paying consultants.

There are a dozen amazing things happening in robotics, including the below item from NVIDIA and orders of magnitude improvement in evolutionary design acceleration coming out of Northwestern Uni.

Over the past four or five years, I have spoken to maybe 500+ board and C-level execs about the near-horizon tech future. This was anchored in questions about the 4th Industrial Revolution, AI, GenAI/LLLM 'stuff' and Quantum

That is a fundamental problem inside companies and a bigger problem in times of innovation and innovation-driven change, like the 4th Industrial Revolution that is upon us.

Great note from pal John Sviokla on a smart move by Deutsche Telekom below and a cool AI phone (it's not really a phone anymore but that's another article).

Great article from the smart folks at WSJ. • 5 minute read