A quick story about science, one of the Nobel prizes just awarded, and a cause for optimism. Also, it's the only article ever with the words Nobel Prize and Tailgate in it.

Three huge things are happening in Science:

1. Acceleration - Over the last decade the acceleration of science and its output has continually accelerated. The structure and flow of science itself has evolved and speeded up. The output is therefore growing but more importantly the future is showing up sooner. Yes, the future is showing up sooner.

2. Flash to Bang - The long, foggy , labyrinth journey from discovery in science to real-world scale impact continues to shrink as smart folks intentionally bridge this chasm with a bullet train-like connection. (For example, the synthetic bio dept at marvelous UC San Diego is inside the engineering school for that very reason)

3. Computers/Boundaries – Science is becoming much more computational while the traditional silos of science are breaking down, and the heretofore clear boundaries get fuzzy. All of which is great for science and us, the humans. AI/’Compute’ in almost all forms is at the beginning of a hockey stick curve in terms of utility, unit cost per impact, adoption, lego-ization and impact. That is a force multiplier for Science.

This did not sneak up on us - but it is just the beginning.

This is not new, this train has been hurtling down the track for a decade plus. It is just now evolving from the Flying Scotsman to the Shanghai Maglev (286 mph). The fact that the latter is Chinese hints at how we systematically engage, leverage evolved pubic-private partnerships matters to remain world tech leaders. Not in a planned economy bonker 5 - 10 year plan mode but more like the birth of Silicon Valley and the computer chip world. But while urgent and important, that is a policy-infused story for another time.

If you went back 15 years and described where some of the breakthrough science is today and asked the established domain leaders whether that would be possible in 15 years I am pretty sure it's a resounding 'not a chance'. Examples are: AlphaFold, DNA sequencing, CRISPR even ArVix. Use Gen AI to explain that if you need to. It will take you 8 minutes with Gen AI as opposed to a day or two previously.

The Nobel Prize

Winning a Nobel Prize is a huge deal, and to folks removed from science seems maybe like an Oscar or a trophy. Statistically, and actually a Nobel Prize is like winning an Oscar for your performance winning the Stanley Cup during the Superbowl you won while you won Wimbledon during the tailgate at that Superbowl (that you won). In any given year, there is about 200 million person-years of professional science experience on the planet in the heads of live humans. There are four science Nobel Prizes a year.

The very great Yogi Berra, who lived right across the street from where I sit now, won 10 World Series rings. Three people in history have won two science Nobels.

This Year's Nobel in Chemistry

So three people just won a Nobel in Chemistry for Quantum Dots. These are man made super tiny crystals that can be manufactured to emit a specific color of light.

Two things about that.

1. Ten years ago if you polled the top 1000 scientists in this space that they would come this far by now no one would have said yes. This is happening a lot. This type of event is becoming more common.

2. This discovery has many direct real-world applications that have been thought through as the work was being done.

The 'So What Who Cares' About Science and their Quantum Dots

I used Gen AI (Claude 2.0) to summarize the real-world potential of quantum dots, here they are:

Here are some of the most promising and impactful potential applications of quantum dots being explored lately:

• Displays - Using quantum dots to produce more vibrant, efficient and thinner display screens for TVs, phones, tablets, etc.

• Solar cells - Quantum dot solar cells theoretically could be twice as efficient as silicon ones. Startups like DotzNano working on commercializing them.

• Medical imaging - Quantum dots can improve detection sensitivity for medical scanning techniques. Being developed for cancer tumor imaging.

• Quantum computing - Quantum dots are one proposed approach for creating stable qubits, the basic units of quantum computers. Companies like IBM researching this.

• Photodetectors - Quantum dot photodetectors could enable highly sensitive detection across UV, visible and infrared wavelengths for things like night vision and motion sensing.

• Lasers - Quantum dot lasers researched for optical data transmission and LIGO-like gravity wave detection which demand high precision.

• Agriculture - Applying customized quantum dots to fertilizers or pesticides could improve yields and reduce waste by optimizing delivery.

• Water treatment - Quantum dot photocatalysts are being developed to enable superior solar-powered water purification.

• Drug delivery - Quantum dots may allow ultra-targeted drug delivery to cancer sites while minimizing side effects.

The tunable nature and excellent optical properties of quantum dots make them promising for many cutting-edge applications at the intersection of nanotechnology, renewable energy, biomedicine, and computing. Continued research and commercialization efforts could enable transformative quantum dot capabilities across industries.

(Thank you Claude - also the name of my maternal grandad)

Conclusion and my Vegas Bet

There's an awful lot going on behind the curtain with that Science stuff. The potential for sector-wide disruption in some sectors in all economies is huge. Staying ahead of the global competition is important and, as in the past, probably requires smart public-private scale partnerships and synergy.

There is a creative destruction cycle revving up. It is always best to be on the creative side of that cycle.

I went on my mobile app for betting and wanted to bet on which areas will have major breakthroughs well ahead of the conventional wisdom timeframe. That is not available for a wager at this time. Regardless, my bets are on:

• Super conductivity

• Fusion

• Additive Manufacturing / Nanotech

• Quantum Computing (various)

• Synthetic Bio

• Quantum Chemistry (more)

• Bioinformatics

Very long odds but massive payouts.

P.S. Moungi G. Bawendi, Louis E. Brus and Alexei I. Ekimov were just awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2023 for the discovery and development of quantum dots.